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Where will trends head in 2024 is the question I’m most asked recently. Compared to the confusion in the market in previous years, this year is characterized by a more headless lack of direction. In the field of smart technology, the wind changed at the end of last year, with many major companies shutting down parts of their IoT platform businesses, such as LatePost reporting that Alibaba Cloud began cutting down on projects that customize industry solutions for government and enterprise customers and downsizing its hardware integration business in the IoT business line and related personnel.
In this regard, my answer is more optimistic. Every industry has its own maturity curve. Last year's successive exit news precisely indicates that smart technology is about to enter its next era - the first stage of excessive growth has passed, and it is inevitable that foam will be squeezed. The beginning of 2024 is filled with imagination. From a macro perspective, technology first shone its strength from AI technological innovations such as Sora and Gemini 1.5 Pro, causing a sensation in technology circles. Then followed the discussion of new quality productive force, depicting more certain development trends in smart technology. Focusing on the micro level, the intelligent industry has shifted from narrative to unleashing commercial value. For example, Tuya's Q4 and full year financial results for 2023 showed a significant year-on-year increase in revenue, turning losses into profits.
Next, I will use Tuya as an example to interpret which enterprises will grasp more opportunities in the second half of smart technology era, to clarify the direction of the smart technology market.
The Second Half of Smart Technology: On the Cusp of Entering the Climbing Stage
Tuya’s Q4 financial report shows that the company's revenue increased by as much as 42.2% year-on-year; the comprehensive gross profit margin broke historical records, and the net cash flow generated from operating activities increased to $31.8 million year-on-year. From a full-year perspective, 2023 achieved the annual Non-GAAP net profit for the first time. The company's performance took the lead in stabilizing the entire industry and achieved significant growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. As a representative enterprise in the intelligent industry, Tuya also reflects to a certain extent the development of the entire industry from its performance.
Tracing the development trajectory of technology, it can be roughly summarized in five stages: Innovation Trigger; Peak of Inflated Expectations; Trough of Disillusionment; Slope of Enlightenment; and Plateau of Productivity. There are two high-return periods for technology investment: the Peak of Inflated Expectations stage of rapid growth and the Slope of Enlightenment stage. However, the Peak of Inflated Expectations stage is the early stage of technological innovation, with extremely high risks. While during the Slope of Enlightenment stage, leading enterprises will be the first to rise in performance due to emerging new technologies, and correspondingly increasing industry valuations.
Returning to the field of smart technology: many believed that the Peak of Inflated Expectations stage of the industry was before 2021, and in the years since then, the industry has ushered in the Trough of Disillusionment stage. But by the end of 2023, there are signs that the market has headed onto a new stage.
Jerry Wang, Founder and CEO of Tuya Smart, said on the Q4 results conference call, "Over the past year, we've witnessed a global trend: an increasing number of influential companies worldwide are entering the smart technology arena, driven by competitive forces, industry opportunities, and their own strategic needs. This trend is especially pronounced in emerging markets such as Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region, where the awareness and adoption of smart technology are on a noticeable rise. "
